This is a classic hang over game as MTSU just upset Marshall on the last play of the game a week ago. Their stock has risen, but I don't see how they are much better than UAB team. UAB is experienced at QB just like Middle Tenn and deep at RB. MTSU's run defense is ranked 96th and allowed both Marshal and North Texas to run at will. That should set up many third and shorts with Darin Reaves and Jordan Howard both averaging over 5 yards per carry. With Austin Brown at QB UAB always has a shot in conference games.
MTSU also has a quality QB in Logan Killgore but Brown is having a better season turning the ball over 6 fewer times than Killgore. UAB has also averaged more yards per rush and are home in this game while they have had a stronger schedule facing LSU and Vanderbilt in non conference games while MTSU has played UNC and BYU.
Florida is 0-3 this year against balanced offenses. The highly touted defense has not faced a balanced offense at the swamp in 2+ years so they have gotten by, but facing LSU who ranked 29th passing 35th rushing they lost, Missouri 32/19 they lost, and Miami 38/24 they lost. Now they face Georgia 25/44 and they will lose. Georgia is the better offense out of all three of those teams, and are now getting healthy again.
Georgia will return Todd Gurley who can beat any run defense, and Michael Bennet at WR to offer Aaron Murray some sort of security and option. Georgia had been proving they could run it on anyone without Gurley and now with him back after the bye week it will be able to against Florida whose defense gave up a lot of rushing yards the past two weeks.
Florida's offense wants to ground and pound and put the game in the hands of their defense. They lost Matt Jones, their star RB and are ranked 89th in rushing ypc and face Georgia who is ranked 31st vs. the run. Georgia can stop the run when their is a threat of a pass. Their biggest weakness is in coverage and Florida is not capable of winning that battle. Florida's QB is not good enough, he lacks weapons and the offensive line has struggled and now replacing both of their tackles. Georgia's pass defense can be decent because of their pass rush which has been solid of late and ranks 17th on the year. Florida is 110th in protecting the QB and even worse since Murphy took over as he's being sacked 13.19% of drop backs over the last 3 games. Georgia still has a shot at the SEC Championship game and I won't be shocked to see them there again facing Alabama, but it starts this week.
I got the Spartans here as their defense is legit ranked top 5 in every major statistical category. Michigan's offense is one dimensional and will rely on the run where Michigan should dominate. Michigan at some point will have to try to force the pass and that's where the Spartan defense has been a rock. Michigan turns the ball over too much with 3+ turnovers in 4 of 7 games this year. Devon Gardner's 108 QB rating on the road is not impressive compared to Michigan State's QB who is gaining confidence and has taken care of the football 12 TD to only 2 interceptions.
The difference in this game is going to be the defense. Michigan State can force turnovers and have a short field Michigan can not. Michigan State had issues moving the ball early on due to WR drops and inconsistent play at RB and now it seems like they have corrected that issue and have found consistency with Langford. I see Michigan State dominating this as Mark Dantonio has since he got to Michigan State going 4-2.
Northwestern has 4 straight losses after last weeks devastating loss to Iowa in OT. I am going with the Wildcats again this week against an over rated Nebraska team. One good thing came out of the Iowa game a week ago was that Northwestern was able to run the ball in the second half parlayed by their defense playing their best game all season. Northwestern has tremendous value here this is a team that was putting up 30+ points with ease early in the season before running into some tough defense who can stop the run. Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa are ranked 8th, 7th, and 35th in run defense and that's how Northwestern moves the ball. Northwestern also was without Cain Kolter for a game too, but he seems to be 100% after last week's game. Nebraska's run defense is not very good and rank 65th but have faced an average offense ranked 65th. They faced 1 team ranked in the top 30 in Wyoming who averaged 7.30 yards per carry against them. Minnesota ran for 271, 100 more than the Gophers ran on Northwestern.
That means in my opinion Northwestern's defense is better and is more capable in this spot because Nebraska is a mess. Nebraska's defense lacks any sort of veteran leadership and it's led to poor communication bad tackling and players out of position. They even made the silly mistake of admitting that they "looked past Minnesota." This is not a focused team right now and Northwestern is better then they've shown of late and have played better vs. a tougher schedule. Northwestern came in here and played well in 2011 and I won't be shocked to see them come away with another win.
